Location: Happy Valley
Time: 8:00 EST
TV: ESPN
Weather: High 54, Low 37 Partly Cloudy
Line: Michigan -3
Michigan is coming off a bye week after 2 losses in a row. Penn State got a win over the coach less Minnesota Golden Gophers last week where they gave up 433 total yards. So what do you make of that? I think neither team is where they want to be and that is competing for a Big Ten Championship. Both have two losses in the Big Ten and holding on for a Bowl game.
There are other similarities between the two:
- They both have a first year starting QB's.
- Both are injured (it seems Robert Bolden will be out, while Denard will play)
- Both defenses have struggled
- Both teams have lost to Iowa
- PSU is 4-3
- Michigan is 5-2
- There are questions if both coaches will be there next year.
- Michigan has Michael Shaw that de-committed from Penn State to go to Michigan. Penn State has Anthony Fera and Kevin Newsome who de-committed from Michigan.
The reason Michigan is favored in this game is due to their top five offense against Penn State's banged up defense. Michigan is expected to run the ball effectively with Denard and their host of running backs. Michigan can also stretch the field with their wide receivers if JoPa over commits to the run.
Penn State on the other hand is really banged up at QB where the true freshman starter Robert Bolden is most likely out with a concussion he suffered against Minnesota. Which leaves Matt McGloin a walk-on sophomore. When Michigan's defense has played well this year it has been against teams with young/in-experienced quarterbacks. It's the upperclassmen that have picked the Wolverines apart. With that said, Penn State does have a talent running back in Evan Royster. I expect Evan to get a lot of carries this week against Michigan's defense that has given up some big plays in the running game.
Tale of the Tape
Michigan Offense vs PSU D = Go Blue
Penn State Offense vs Michigan's D = A real ugly push
Special Teams = Penn State (better place kicking, punting is a push, return game who knows?)
Intangibles = Push (both need a win, night game at home favors PSU but talent favors Mich)
I think the Michigan faithful is much more confident in this game then they were at the beginning of the year. With that said, this is not an easy win for the Wolverines, no matter who is playing QB for JoPa. Michigan will have to stop the run and make that young QB beat them with his arm. The Michigan CB's will have to show improvements over the past two games in letting WR's run free.
Sing Hail to the Victors if..........
- Denard is week 1-5 Denard
- Michigan doesn't turnover the ball
- The young PSU QB looks young and confused
- Denard has 150 on the ground and so does two Michigan RB's
- The Michigan D gets stops against the young PSU offense
- Evan Royster is finding huge holes in the Michigan D
- Matt McGloin is the next Troy Aikman
- Michigan is sloppy and confused after the bye week
- Michigan's LB's keep losing contain
- Michigan beats themselves
I expect the Wolverines to have renewed focus and rest after the bye week and play a very good game. I hope Michigan fixed things on defense and worked in a few new looks on offense. A win = Bowl Game which they haven't had in two years. With the game on prime time national TV they should be ready to play.
If Michigan doesn't make the same mistakes they made against MSU and Iowa they should win the game even if the defense shows up for only part of the time. With that said, I expect Michigan's D to get a lot of stops against young Penn State's offense. (examples UConn and ND first half) If Michigan can pressure the young QB and not let Royster beat them, they should be in good shape. Michigan 38 Penn State 24
GO BLUE!
