San Diego State Preview

Time: 12:00
Location: Big House
TV: BTN
Weather: High of 66 and 70% chance of rain
Line: Michigan -10.5

Welcome to the Brady Bowl (Hoke not Tom).  Remember back in 2006 when Michigan was undefeated and they had a late scheduled game against Ball State. The game was November 5th right before Michigan headed on the road to face Indiana and the #1 vs #2 match up against Ohio State. Michigan struggled the entire game and won 34-26. That game went a long way in Brady Hoke getting his current gig.

Between Ball State (his Alma Mater) and Michigan (his dream job) he spent two years at SDSU. He turned that program around and won a bowl game with Aztecs last December. They have been able to continue that momentum under new head coach Rocky Long who was the DC under Coach Hoke with a 3-0 record. This is the best start SDSU has had in 30 years and will have plenty of "intangibles" to play for on Saturday when they met their former coaches team.

The Aztecs are similar to Michigan in the fact they roll up a lot of yards on offense and also give up a bunch of yards on defense. How many yards? 419 total yards to Washington State and 446 to Army.
On offense the two NFL worthy guys are QB Ryan Lindley and RB Ronnie Hillman. It will be both of their jobs to keep scoring up and Denard off the field.

Let's go to the Tale of the Tape:

Running Game: Push (Denard vs Ronnie)
Passing Game: Lindley
Defense Talent: Push
Defense Coaching: Mattison, Hoke and Borges (It was Al's offense he should know how to stop it)
Scouting Report Edge: Hoke and Borges
Intangibles:  SDSU (Our coach broke up with us via text)
Kick off Time: Michigan (it will be 9:00 AM on the West Coast)

This is the best game in the Big Ten this week and somehow ESPN/ABC looked past it.  SDSU likes to get out quickly and has scored at least 14 points in the first quarter the last 7 games.  Michigan has yet to score in quarter number 1 this year.   That could mean the Aztecs could get out to a quick lead and Michigan might be playing from behind again. 

If you haven't blocked out the Rich Rod years, you might remember the tenancy of his teams to get out and score early and then fade late.  The 2011 Wolverines seem just to be the opposite.

Sing Hail to the Victors if................

• SDSU sleep walks through the first half
• Michigan doesn't sleep walk through the first half
• Denard can find his wide receivers and tight ends
• 1 Michigan Running Back gets over 100 yards
• Hoke and Mattison come up with a secret formula to stop Hillman & Lindley
• TWolf is 100% healthy - No casts or limps

Think to yourself, Damn Hoke must be a good coach if they are doing this to us.........

• SDSU gets out to a two score lead in the first half
• They have formula to stop Denard
• Aztecs keep Michigan under 400 total yards
• The Michigan defense is dazed and confused
• Hillman over a 100 yards and Lindley over 300 passing

If I was a betting man, I would assume the SDSU kids want this game more then the Wolverines.   Brady Hoke was their coach and now he is on the Michigan sideline.   On the other hand, if there is anyone in the nation that could "read SDSU mail" it would be Coach Hoke and Big Al.   So I'm guessing that will even it self out during the game. 

This maybe the best offense the Michigan defense has seen but ND was pretty close.  I know San Diego State hasn't seen a Denard Robinson yet but he has struggled early in games by throwing picks and over throwing receivers.   Don't sleep on the Aztecs and it wasn't a joke when Coach Hoke wanted to buy out this contract.  He knows how good they are.  If you need something to reference when thinking about this game, think Notre Dame.    I see lots of points and not much defense.  If Michigan can continue to get turnovers on defense (while not giving them up on offense) that might be the difference.   Brady Old vs Brady New

Michigan 38 SDSU 28


GO BLUE!

EMU Preview

Time: 12:00
Location: Big House
TV: BTN
Weather: Partly Cloudy high of 66 degrees (is it Fall already?)
Line: Michigan -30


So Michigan's 2011 season has consisted of a weather shorten game and a big comeback against a rival.  So what will week 3 have in store for us?  Hopefully a lot less drama and many more offensive plays. 

Clearly, this is a miss match on paper and talent as EMU comes down Stadium Blvd to get a pay day.  The battle of Washtenaw County helps EMU fund it's athletic department and a chance for former Wolverines to start or continue their coaching careers.

With that said, the Wolverines have struggled in the past with EMU and played some too close for comfort games.   Will there be a let down this weekend?  I doubt it, even though Michigan is 2-0 there still remains a ton of questions that Brady and Staff hopes to start answering on Saturday.   For example:

• Can Michigan find a starting RB?
• Will Justice Hayes or Thomas Rawls get any snaps?
• How will the musical chairs at LB turn out?
• Can Michigan's offensive line dominate like expected?
• Can the Michigan offense be effective with Denard under center?
• Will Devin Gardner get some snaps?
• Can the defensive line get a pass rush with 4 guys?
• Is Blake Countess or Greg Brown ready for regular action?
• Can Michigan make a field goal?

That's a lot of questions to be answered in week 3 with a solid SDSU team coming in next week and the Big Ten season two weeks away. 

The Michigan players should take this game seriously because their playing time in future games may depend on it.   I just hope we can start to identify the clear starters at each position with a couple good options for back up (while not burning any redshirts).

I also wouldn't mind if Craig Roh mixed in a tackle or two.  I'm just hoping he is just not himself from the illness he had late in the summer.

This is not a big recruiting game, so there probably won't be a ton of top rated 2012 guys on campus.  Michigan needs to focus on the game, stay healthy and put this one away early so the back ups can get some time.   Troy Woolfolk please sit this one out.

Sing Hail to the Victors if...............

• Denard is sharp in the passing game and is healthy on the bench in the 3rd qtr.
• Big Will starts to cement his position in the starting lineup
• The offensive line gives some huge holes for the Michigan running backs
• 2 running backs have over 100 yards and neither are named Denard.
• The Michigan defense holds EMU to under 14 points
• No injuries
• Mike Hart runs to the Michigan sideline as EMU takes the field

Say Darn those former Michigan coaches and players if..............

• The game is uncomfortably close
• Michigan can't stop the run on defense
• Mike Hart suits up for the Eagles
• If Michigan has let down after the big win last weekend

Look for EMU to try to run the ball a lot and take some shots down field if the Michigan safeties are out of position or giving big cushions.  Michigan will work on the basics like running the ball and trying to improve Denards's accuracy with some short throws.  Michigan will take plenty of shots deep but they really want to get some yards out of the RB position and not put Denard in harms way.   Let's hope Big Blue jumps out to a big lead and the defensive holds tight. 

Michigan 41 EMU 13


GO BLUE

Notre Dame Preview

Time: 8:00 PM
Location: Big House at Night
Weather: High of 73 with isolated thunderstorms
TV: ESPN
Line: Michigan +3

This is one of my favorite games of the year.  It rates right up there in my mind with Ohio State.  ND has come to the Big House in past years and hit Michigan with a rocket and Michigan counter punched with Desmond's TD catch.   Both memorable games for different reasons.    I even remember a night game at ND where a Michigan WR took a pass that looked like it had been broken up but ended up on a teammates shoulder and took it for a touchdown.  Michigan lost a close game.   Another year Lou Holtz played for a tie and the memorable games go on and on in your mind, including Denard's dominance last year. 

My job this year is to try give you a prediction on how this game is going to turn out late night on Saturday.  I usually like to take a snap shot of how they played the week before and try to make the decision on who is playing better.   Both teams had long rain delays and one team played through them and lost the other called it a day a won.   Michigan just wet our appetite on offense as two defensive touchdowns and the weather limited Denard's touches against Western Michigan.  ND fumbled and threw away their game as they pretty much doubled up the yards against South Florida last weekend.  (Does that game sound familiar?  It seems very similar to RR's first game in South Bend).

Vegas isn't buying the turnover fest from last weekend from the Fighting Irish and have them as a 3 point favorite which seems strange coming off a loss and having to travel to Ann Arbor. 

So how am I going to predict this game?

Both teams have:

• Guys that can dominate the game on offense - Denard and Floyd
• Two outstanding players on shaky defenses - Mike Martin and Manti Te’O
• Both schools have new coaches and trying to run new schemes (ND has a 1 year advantage)
• Michigan started 2010 strong and ND finished the year strong
• Both are Adidas schools and will be wearing throw back jerseys

• Neither team is ranked but ND was ranked #16 last week
• ESPN Game Day is in the house and it's the prime time game of the week.

Sounds pretty even doesn't it?  Michigan and the Wolverine Fans will be hyped up for the first night at the Big House.  There will be fly overs, hype videos, new jerseys, fireworks and I'm sure other surprises.  Which should get the crowd ready to explode when the Wolverines hit the banner. That "juice" should carry the Wolverines for the 1st quarter or so. 

Ok, Bob enough hype!  What is going to happen in the game?

I expect ND to have a similar game plan as Western did on Saturday.  They will spread out the Wolverines and try to move the ball down the field through the air.  I would make sure Floyd is closely covered because he is clearly the best player on offense.   ND then will try to hit big plays through mixing in the run, catching the Michigan defense off guard.   I personally don't care who the ND QB is since they both can play.   The ND WR's are fast and if they cut out the mistakes they had last week they will be difficult for the Wolverines DB's to cover.  Michigan needs a 100% healthy Troy Woolfolk and it would help if the new Detroit Lion Donovan Warren could dress on Saturday night as well.

Greg Mattison has a tough job this week trying to figure out how to cover Floyd with more then one player, covering the other talented receivers while trying to stop the run.  That is a big task for the Michigan defense that is prone to giving up lots of yards and points to good any offenses.   It's clear Vegas hasn't forgot the Gator Bowl either.

ND has the same problem with trying to stop Denard.  Here is a quote from their DC:
"Unfortunately it just is what it is," defensive coordinator Bob Diaco said. "We need to be perfect, because any little crease and it's over, he's gone. It's not like, somebody hits a crease and he rattles for eight, 10 yards and you get him on the ground. This guy hits the crease and he can punch a hole in the top of the defense like that." …

"It's just a monumental task defending a runner at quarterback in particular, that it almost gives you the feeling like they're playing with 12," Diaco said. "It's a problem." 

I expect to see the ball in Denard's hands more then last week.  The ND defense will all go to Denard on the threat of a run and should leave Michigan TE's and WR's wide open.  Look for big days from Koger, JR and Roundtree.   I don't expect big days for the Michigan running backs unless Al Borges can just flat out fool the defense.   Speaking of fooling the D, I expect a trick play from the Wolverines on Saturday night.  Could it be a pass to Denard?   I also expect to see Hopkins in the I formation as a FB that could get a few carries.  The Michigan offense didn't show much last week and us fans hope there is a lot more to come. 

I hate to say who wins the turn over battle will win the game because that is usually the case in any football game.  The talent is pretty even and I would say the biggest gap is between ND's offense and Michigan's defense.  Most believe that ND won't have the turnovers they did last weekend but I will tell you this, after watching the Wolverines the last few years, turnovers are contagious and sometimes they just don't totally go away from game to game. 

Sing Hail to the Victors Late Night if:

• Denard stays healthy and can dominate
• The Michigan WR's and TE's have big nights
• The Michigan Defense can take one thing away from the ND offense (Floyd or the running game)
• Michigan wins the turnover battle

You feel like Bo when he said, "To Hell with Notre Dame"

• If we have flash backs to when Boubacar tried to cover the ND WR's
• Brian Kelly isn't angry at all
• The Michigan defensive line doesn't get any pass rush at all
• Michigan's offense struggles and can't keep pace on the score board. 

Michigan needs to limit the big plays on Saturday night and I feel the key unit will the Michigan defense.  Both teams will score points and who gets the most stops will win the game.  I have a feeling we are going to see a ton of points and a close game.   Watch the TE's on both sides, they could be a huge difference in the game.  ND is used to playing night games so the first Big House night game shouldn't play too much of a factor for them.   One play or turnover will change this game and tip it for the other team.

Michigan 34 Notre Dame 31

GO BLUE

Welcome to Game Day!

The countdown clock above reads 0 days and we have some news to pass on.

-Fitz is getting the start at tailback. I expect him and Shaw to get an even amount of snaps.

- JT Floyd gets the start at the other corner spot. We will see a lot of Avery as well, because I expect WWU to spread the field and try to move the ball through the air.

Sparty looked pretty poor last night, let's hope Michigan looks much better against a better opponent this afternoon.

Has anyone else noticed in the games on Thursday and Friday night that nobody seems to be able to make field goals or extra points?

Enjoy the day and Go Blue!

Michigan Friday: Looks to Speed Up the Clock

It's all most here folks, Michigan Football.   It will be hard to wait for the 3:30 kick off, I know you tailgaters like the later start so you can kill a few more bud lights.  Traffic will be a killer so leave your house early. 

Some random thoughts and info for the weekend:

• Something  I forgot to mention in my preview:  WR's and Kick Returners: Catch the Damn Ball!

• Skip Holtz vs ND:  Don't sleep on South Florida.

• TomVH now of ESPN tweeted RB Greg Garmon is expected to visit this weekend and maybe for the ND game as well. Greg is the 15th ranked RB in the country to Scouts.

• Best Games of the Weekend is Boise State vs Georgia and (the game Michigan will play in next year) LSU vs Oregon in Dallas.

• Vegas is betting that Western will cover the spread against Michigan.

• Sione Houma is now a 3 star FB now on Rivals.  He got a 1 star bump up.

• 5 star basketball prospect Mitch McGary is visiting Ann Arbor this weekend.   Michigan is in his final group.   He will make his decision in about 2 weeks.  

• Here is my prediction for freshman to play on Saturday: Wile, Morgan, Countess and Brown. 

• Look for a couple of shots deep for Roy and Jr. on Saturday.

• Danny O'Brein has cut his list to 4 which includes: UM, Tenn, MSU, and Alabama.

Game 1 Preview: Western Michigan

Time: 3:30 EST
Location: Ann Arbor, Big House
TV: ABC/ESPN 2
Weather:  High of 89 scattered thunderstorms
Line: Michigan -13.5

It's hard to believe that we are a day away from starting the Hoke era.  Is it me or does it seem like RR left about 2 years ago and not just 8 months?  Michigan kicks off the 2011 campaign in front of 110,000 strong at the Big House at 3:30 on Saturday (this really should be noon kickoff).  Saturday will be special for Hoke and his entire staff as well as the freshman who will be running on the field for the first time and of course the seniors who know it's now or never. 

Western Michigan finished 6-6 last year and finished with a 5-3 MAC record.  They are a perfect opening day opponent for the Wolverines, who hopefully will be rolling out an improved defense and a new pro style offense.   Western will remember Denard Robinson very clearly because Denard took his first college football snap for a touchdown against the Broncos just two short years ago.  

What to watch from WMU:

• Strong QB play - Alex Carder threw for 33 touchdowns and over 3,300 yards last year.


• A good WR unit with Ansel Ponder and Robert Arnheim.  The most dangerous is Jordon White who lead the team in catches and yards in 2010.


• A poor running game - Western only averaged 4.0 yards per carry last year. 


• A defense with 8 returning starters, which includes the entire D-line.


• There is not a lot of experience in the defensive backfield or at the linebacker.

We know the Wolverines well, so how does WMU strength match up against the Wolverines?

Let's go to the tale of the tape:

Denard vs Westerns D = Shoelace
WMU Passing Game vs Michigan's DB = Western
Mike Martin vs WMU O Line = MM
Michigan's O line vs Westerns D Line = Pancakes from Village Kitchen
Special Teams = Push
Intangibles = Big House and Hoke's first game

There really isn't a ton of mystery in this game.   Western will try to throw the ball and exploit the Michigan secondary and then mix in a few runs hoping to hit some big plays.  The Michigan defense will try to disrupt that strategy by pressuring the passer with a lot of pressure from the D-Line.  I expect to see lots of blitzes from the Michigan linebackers and lots of cornerbacks in the game since I expect Western to spread the field as much as possible.  Western averaged 30 points a game last year and I am sure they have watched a ton of tape on how the Michigan defense couldn't stop anybody.  Michigan hopes the likes of Woolfolk and Floyd back from injury will help the DB's cover the talented Western wide receivers.

Michigan will try to run the ball and mix in a short passing game.   They want to move the ball on the ground and score lots of points with out showing too much for ND.  The flavor of the day will be vanilla unless the Michigan defense struggles and Michigan needs to open it up a bit.   If the Wolverines can move the ball with Shaw and Toussaint I expect we won't see Denard running too much.   I believe the game plan for Denard is to beat the D with the treat of running but hitting the Michigan WR's on short routes that will set up the long ball. 

Sing Hail to the Victors if..................

• Shaw and Toussaint both have over 100 yards


• The Michigan pass rush is effective against the Western's O line


• The Michigan defense is much improved and gets a ton of stops


• The Michigan Oline dominates and keeps Denard clean in the passing game

Say, I wish Western would get back on their horse and head back to K-Zoo.......................

• If the Western pass game is effective against Michigan's D


• If WMU scores touchdowns instead of field goals


• It becomes a shoot out

Former Wolverine and 4 star recruit Dan O'Neill transferred after he thought he didn't fit into RR's spread offense and wanted more of a pro set.  He headed to Western where his brother played.   (Which is ironic because I expect Western to throw the ball in a number of spread sets and Michigan now is the one that wants to run the ball in more pro sets).  Dan will get to meet a lot of his former teammates during the game as I expect Mattison to do all kid of things to get pressure on Western's QB to protect his linebackers and defensive backs.   The key for the Michigan D is not to give up any big plays and let Denard and the Michigan offense do their thing. 

The last few years the Michigan D plays their best game of the year in the first game of the year, so I expect something similar on Saturday.  With some better coaching and solid D Line and Woolfolk locking down one WR, I expect the Defense to over whelm Western.  The Michigan offense will be Pro Sets and have Denard in the shotgun a lot.   The goal is to get Denard out of the game early in the 4th quarter and healthy for ND next week.   The Wolverines want to over power the Broncos and not show too much for ND to key on. 

Michigan 31 Western 13

Go Blue

PS:  I will have my game thoughts up on Sunday.

Michigan - Ohio State Preview

Time: 12:00 EST
Location: The Shoe
TV: ABC
Line: -16.5 OSU
Weather:  Partly Cloudy 40/25

Today is Black Friday and tomorrow Michigan and Ohio State renew their yearly rivalry, which for the last 6 years has been one sided in favor of the Buckeyes.    These long win streaks for each side are not good for the rivalry in my opinion, I much prefer when both teams are evenly matched.   This match up used to be called: "The Game", which it really hasn't been since 2006.

This year Ohio State is ranked #8 in the country and over a 2 touchdown favorite over the 4 loss Wolverines.  So the big question is; does Michigan have a chance to win in this mis-match on paper?

Let's take a look at what Michigan will have to do if they want to stay in this game:

• Cam Gordon will have "spy" Pryor and play the game of his life.   After watching Wisconsin run all over the Wolverines last week.  Tressel will run, run, run, and then throw the deep ball.   Cam needs to be able to stop OSU's running backs and when Pryor keeps the ball on scrambles or designed runs.
• Michigan can't turn the ball over at all.  
• Michigan can't come out Flat again.   This has been a troubling trend in games against; MSU, Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
• The game needs to be a "shoot out".  OSU will score and score often on Michigan's defense and Michigan will need to match them on offense.  
• A "few" breaks for the Maize and Blue.  A blocked kick, a pick 6, or a key fumble recovery.  Michigan has to have a big break to be in this game late while they try to pull the upset. 
• Play 60 minutes.  Penn State came in to the Shoe and was winning at half time to only get blown out in the second half.   
• Denard needs to be great and healthy for the entire game.

So there you have it.  Those are my "keys" to a Wolverine upset.   I expect the "The Vest" to play this one close to the Vest and run the ball as much as he can.  Ohio State will try to power the young Wolverines off the ball and don't want to risk throwing the ball even against the Michigan freshman defensive backfield.

Tressel will take his shots deep and try to get a lead early, so he can run out the clock in the cold weather in Columbus.  Michigan on the other had will try to do anything they can to keep Ohio State out of the end zone on defense and will try to score quickly on offense with lots of Denard.

Sing Hail to the Victors if................... 

• If Denard goes for 300 in the air and 200 on the ground
• No turnovers
• Michigan can hold OSU to field goals instead of touchdowns
• Ohio State has "overlooked' the Wolverines on their way to a BCS game
• This game is still in doubt in the 4th quarter

Is it really 7 in a row if.....................

• Pryor is mistake free
• OSU finds big holes in the Michigan D in the running game
• As soon as Michigan sits on the run, OSU goes deep
• OSU gets up 2+ scores on Michigan in the first half

This game worries me that it could be ugly early.   Michigan needs to play a flawless game on offense to stay close and even that might not be enough.   Michigan hasn't really played on complete game on both sides of the ball since UConn whose skill set is probably equal to OSU's second or third team.   I believe Greg Robinson is coaching for his job and even though some have reported Rich might be as well, I don't believe he will be fired even if Michigan goes down by 40.  My hope is Michigan does not come out flat and plays hard for 60 minutes and has a chance to win in the 4th.  My heart doesn't match my head.  Michigan 14 OSU 42

Go Blue!

Michigan - Wisconsin Preview

Time: 12:00 EST
Location: Big House
TV: ESPN
Line: Wisconsin -4
Weather:  43/34 Partly Cloudy


Wisconsin again enters the Big House as a top 10 team in the nation.   They have already beat the "Eyes" of the (Buckeyes and Hawkeyes) Big Ten with their only loss (in the State of Michigan) to the Spartans.   Everyone and their brother knows what to expect from the Badgers on Saturday.  They will run the ball but are a pretty balanced offense averaging 200 yards in the air and 228 on the ground.   Like most years they have a strong offensive and defensive lines and want to play power football and solid defense.   That formula has lead them to a 5 game win streak with a BCS Rose Bowl birth dancing in their heads.

Michigan is almost the exact opposite of Wisconsin.  They have a high powered fast offense that prefers to spread you out and run and throw in space.  Michigan's defense won't win any awards this year but is clearly playing better in the last two weeks (yes even after giving up 65 points).  Michigan prefers quick scores and Wisconsin prefers long drives.   This could be an interesting game.

Big House of Horrors:  Last week in my Big Ten preview we discussed the strange mojo that Northwestern has over Iowa.  Wisconsin seems to have a similar Michigan complex.   The Badgers haven't won in the state of Michigan since 2004 and hasn't won a game at the Big House since 1994.  Two years ago, Wisconsin was up 19-0 in RR's first year and the Michigan defense and Steven Threet brought the Wolverines back to win the game in the second half.   Spooky Stuff

Tale of the Tape

Michigan Offense vs Wisconsin D = DAD  Denard All Day

Wisconsin Offense vs Michigan D = Way too Ezeh

Special Team =  Stop kicking field goals!

Intangibles = Michigan "Spooky" Mojo


I would be remiss, if I didn't take a few minutes to thank all the seniors for sticking and staying with this program when the program was clearly re-building.   Thank you to:  Martell Webb, Perry Dorrestein, Steve Schilling, John Ferrara, Greg Banks, Adam Patterson, Renaldo Sagesse, Obi Ezeh, Jonus Mouton, Mark Moundrous, and James Rodgers.  You all have contributed to this years squad and I hope you enjoy your final home game, last game against Ohio State, and your well deserved Bowl Game.   You are true Michigan Men!  Congratulations.

Michigan has won 2 games in a row and Wisconsin has won 5.  A steak will come to end on Saturday. Which one will it be?  Let me give you a hint, the key is turnovers.

Sing Hail to the Victors if..............

• Michigan protects the damn ball
• Denard is effective in both running and passing (no picks!)
• Michigan's Defense forces some stops and field goals
• Martin and Mouton are healthy and effective
• Michigan gets production out of it's running backs
• Michigan's offensive line plays very well

Ask what happened to our Wisconsin Mojo if....................

• Wisconsin wins the turnover battle
• Clays backup are better then John Clay
• Michigan young defense gets confused with Wisconsin's balance
• Wisconsin's Defense has Denard figured out
• The cold weather favors Wisconsin

The boys from Florida and California had some issues with the cold rain last weekend.  Will they have the same issues in 40 degree weather?  It's probably already snowed in Wisconsin so they are used to it. 

This is one of those match ups you could call either way.  Wisconsin doesn't play well in Ann Arbor but are clearly the better team.  They will try to pound the Wolverines into submission with the run game and just when Michigan plays the run, they will hit Toon at WR for a long gain.   Michigan has seemed to play confident football since the Bowl Game Monkey is now off their back.  Are they good enough to beat the 7th ranked team in the country?  That is the big question.  Will senior day give the Wolverines the emotion they need to beat a better team?  If Michigan protects the ball they should be in the game.  If they don't they won't.  Wisconsin 32  Michigan 21

     
GO BLUE!

Michigan vs Purdue Preview

Location:  Ross Aide Stadium
Time: 12:00 EST
TV: Big Ten Network
Line: Purdue + 12.5
Weather: High of 70, 40% chance of rain

Neither one of these teams are lighting up the Big Ten, both come into this match up with a 2-3 conference record.  Both teams have also had big losses at important positions:  Michigan in the defensive backfield and Purdue at the QB position.  Purdue has also had a strange string of ACL injuries that have hit other offensive positions as well, which has given the Boilermakers this new mascot (which I really like and you knew it was coming!)

Michigan is coming off a 3 game losing streak with the basketball score and triple overtime win last Saturday.   Purdue is currently on it's own 3 game losing streak but with Purdue's offense injuries it's really impressive they have won 2 Big Ten games.  They also played Wisconsin close for a half last weekend at home before the game got out of control.   Purdue is 2 wins away from a bowl game with Michigan, MSU, and IU still left on the schedule.   So do you think they want this game?

A bowl game isn't the only reason that Danny Hope and the Boilermakers are looking for a third straight win over the Wolverines.   They are still upset about 2 things the Wolverines did in the past 3 years.  #1 was the signing day change of heart from Purdue to Michigan from star WR Roy Roundtree.  #2 was that Danny Hope meet RR at mid field after their victory in the Big House last year and introduced him to the kid that Danny believed RR got suspended by the Big Ten.

So to say the least, there is zero love lost between these two schools right now.  RR says that incident last year was in the past but you know he just wants to take the Boilermakers to the woodshed.  Danny of course feels the same way.   So this should be a good hard hitting game.

Purdue on offense prefers to run the ball and ranks #39 in the nation in rushing.  They really don't prefer to throw the ball where they rank #114.   That strategy will be welcomed by the Wolverine defense that ranks 105 in points against with a lot of youth in the defensive backfield.

Michigan on the other hand has the #9 ranked rushing offense and the #28 passing offense in the country which matches well against the 79th Purdue "points against" defense.  This is where Michigan has a clear advantage and should put up a lot of points. 

Tale of the Tape:

Michigan Offense vs Purdue Defense =  Maybe 0 Punts

Purdue Offense vs Michigan Defense =  Second Team All Stars

Special Teams = Have you seen Michigan kick field goals?

Intangibles =  RR vs Hope in a steal cage match


If it wasn't for thie long line of coaches with full thick mustaches the Michigan faithful would have very little respect for Purdue.  With that said, Purdue has won 2 straight over Michigan and the last time the Wolverines were in West Lafayette a backup running back Justin Stiller played QB and ran through the Michigan defense like a rat through cheese.  Even Justin is banged up with a foot sprain, so he is questionable for the game as well. 

Purdue has a talented defensive line which will be a good match up with Michigan's talented offensive line.   Purdue is strong in their pass rush and Denard/Tate will have to get rid of the ball quickly during passing plays.  Look for more screens and slats for the Michigan offense, then deep balls.

Sing Hail to the Victors if.........

• Michigan scores every time they touch the ball.
• Denard stays healthy all game and goes for 200 and 300
• Michigan gets stops on defense
• More Mike Shaw and Stephen Hopkins
• Roundtree has a big day catching the ball

Yell, Why do we play so bad on the Big Ten Network if..............

• If this becomes a shoot out
• Danny Hope has an RR magical formula
• Michigan gets caught in mis-direction or trick plays
• The Michigan defense continues to give up lots of points and lots of yards
• Michigan loses the turnover margin

Purdue knows they need this win and they really dislike the Wolverines.    They will try to run the ball, control the clock, and will throw out all the trick plays to get a W.  Purdue will have to score way over 30 points to win this game.  Weather could be the difference if it rains and Michigan gets the turnover bug.

This will be an interesting challenge for the Michigan defense which hasn't played very well on the road since the ND game.  If Michigan plays smart on offense, protects the ball, and get some stops on defense this game shouldn't be close.  Though I'm still not sold on the Wolverines on the road yet.  I'm hoping for a Michigan blow out win but I think it will be closer then that.  I think RR really wants a win against Hope and will have the Wolverines ready to play.  Michigan 100 Purdue 65    Robbie Hummel goes for 25 - who blew out his ACL as well.

I will be at the game, so please think of me when you hear a hunderd train whistles, movie clips, and that guy hitting that big drum. 

GO BLUE!

Michigan - Illinois Preview

Time: High Noon
Location: Big House
TV: ESPN
Line:  Illinois +3
Weather:  43/30 Partly Cloudy

Sometime Vegas lines make you scratch your head and say, "are you kidding me!"  It's like an invitation for a non-gambler to find a sports book on-line and put down this months mortgage on the game.  The Michigan - Illinois game seems like the one game to jump on.  Michigan is favored by 3 points.  This line reminds me of when Oregon came to town and Mike Hart had a bad ankle after the App. State disaster and Michigan was favored.   We all remember what happened in that game. 

Let's take a quick look at some common opponents:

Both Teams Lost to MSU.  Michigan lost 34-17, Illinois lost 26-6

Both teams beat IU:  Michigan 42-35, Illinois 43-13

Illinois beat Penn State (in Happy Valley) 33-13, Michigan lost in Happy Valley 41-31


What does that tell us?
Michigan sure does have a way of making offenses look good.  Zook and company held IU to 13 points, Michigan couldn't hold them under 30.   Illinois beat Penn State on the road when their 1st string QB was playing, Michigan got lit up by their back up.   Those are terrible signs for this game.


Tale of the Tape:

Michigan Offense vs Illinois D = Advantage Blue.  Michigan should be able to score points against this improving defense.

Illinois Offensive vs Michigan D =  Sad Panda.  Michigan's defense showed up in Ann Arbor last Saturday Night for a game in Happy Valley.  It was maybe the worst showing of a Michigan defense since before Fritz Crisler roamed the sideline.   Now, Michigan's only experienced corner is out for the year after hurting his ankle in practice this week.  That means former HS QB Courtney Avery will be filling his shoes and hopefully covering WR's and not looking to pass to them.

Special Teams = Advantage Zook.  Michigan seemed to have worked out the kickoff issues but their last decent return was in 2009.  Michigan's field goal kicking is very suspect, but he did make one last game! If Michigan can catch the ball, not fumble, make a field goal and all the extra points, then that is a small win for the Maize and Blue.

Intangibles = Push.  There isn't a team that needs a victory more then Michigan and Illinois is improving every week.   This is a classic match up of Hot vs Cold.  How desperate are the Wolverines? is the question of the day. 

Illinois is not afraid of this Michigan team at all.  Two years ago they won in the Big House.  Last year, with me in the stands Roy Roundtree looks to have scored on a long slant play but was called down on the 1.  Michigan couldn't get it in end zone and Illinois took over the game.  Those plays cost Michigan the game and a trip to a bowl game.

Sing Hail to the Victors if..........

• Denard is healthy the entire game
• Michigan mixes the run and pass to keep Illinois off balance
• Michigan doesn't turn the ball over on offense
• The Michigan D can get a handful of stops (maybe some field goals?)
• The Michigan D can pick up a fumble or pick (haven't had one since IU game)
• Michigan doesn't spot Zook 30 points before they decided to play

Say, I thought it was supposed to be Zook's year to get fired if...............

• Michigan's Defense is well Michigan Defense from the PSU game
• Michigan doesn't grab a quick lead in the shoot out
• Illinois scores touchdowns instead of field goals
• Michigan only has 9 offensive possessions.
• Courtney Avery looks like a QB playing corner

Michigan hasn't kept a Big Ten team under 30 points this entire year.  IU 35, MSU 34, Iowa 38, PSU 41 what makes you think they will keep Illinois under 30?  Nothing.  Illinois has a young mobile QB and they will attack Michigan's defense in a similar way that Michigan will attack Illinois.  There will be a number of QB read draws, hand offs to the running backs and 7-15 yard throws.   This is the exact formula that has been beating Michigan the last 3 games.   The only difference is this QB is mobile and we have a true freshman starting at corner that was a QB last year.

Can Michigan win this game?  Sure if they get some stops on defense.  Which in my mind means turnovers, punts, and field goals.   This team needs to play desperate football because their season is at stake.   RR can't waste offensive possessions and there needs to be some 4th down gambles.  Michigan has to pretty much be able to score on every drive.  The Michigan offense just needs to protect the ball and score points in both half's.  No more slow starts.   As for the defense, who the hell knows?  Maybe a blind squirrel will find a nut in this game.  Or maybe Illinois is just the better all around team right now.  Illinois 34 Michigan 28

Dear Karma,
Thank you for the relief this week with the NCAA.  Us Michigan fans needed some good news.  I appreciate you throwing us a bone after the JT Floyd injury.   That really helped round off a not so good week.  

I don't want to sound un-grateful but I need a favor.  Michigan has 5 wins right now and needs at least 1 more win to be bowl eligible.   As you might understand, I'm not asking for a holiday trip to Texas, Florida or even Downtown Detroit.    I'm asking because the kids on this team deserve it.  I'm asking for Denard and the hours he put in over the summer to get better, I am asking for David Molk who would rather walk on broken glass then take another loss, I am asking for Troy Woolfolk who hurt his ankle in the pre-season and has never seen the field this year.   These kids have worked hard for a couple of years and the most exciting place they have visited is Iowa City and as you might have imagined Karma, that's not very exciting city.   Not only do they deserve a reward but they also need two more weeks of practice.  They have lost a months worth of practices the last two years and really need the time to help them learn the positions and just to be a better football team.   

So here is the ask:  Can we please have two wins the next two weeks?  Yes, I know about Greg Robinson and the defense.  Yes, I understand how hard that will be but if you remember you granted a similar wish a couple years ago against Minnesota for the Little Brown Jug.   That is the request I put forward to you.  

Thank you for listening and I will look for your answer on Saturday at about 3:30.

Yours Truly,
BigHouse Bob 

Michigan - Penn State Preview

Date: Halloween Eve
Location: Happy Valley
Time: 8:00 EST
TV:  ESPN
Weather:  High 54, Low 37 Partly Cloudy
Line: Michigan -3

Michigan is coming off a bye week after 2 losses in a row.  Penn State got a win over the coach less Minnesota Golden Gophers last week where they gave up 433 total yards. So what do you make of that?  I think neither team is where they want to be and that is competing for a Big Ten Championship.   Both have two losses in the Big Ten and holding on for a Bowl game. 

There are other similarities between the two:

• They both have a first year starting QB's. 
• Both are injured (it seems Robert Bolden will be out, while Denard will play)
• Both defenses have struggled
• Both teams have lost to Iowa
• PSU is 4-3
• Michigan is 5-2
• There are questions if both coaches will be there next year.
• Michigan has Michael Shaw that de-committed from Penn State to go to Michigan.   Penn State has Anthony Fera and Kevin Newsome who de-committed from Michigan.

Who wants it more?  That is the most important question on Saturday.  Both teams have the opportunity for their seasons to go bad in a hurry.   Michigan is sitting at 5-2 with 3 winnable games in a row in the Big Ten before Wisconsin and Ohio State.   Penn State is barley over .500 and needs wins to get to a bowl game. 

The reason Michigan is favored in this game is due to their top five offense against Penn State's banged up defense.   Michigan is expected to run the ball effectively with Denard and their host of running backs.  Michigan can also stretch the field with their wide receivers if JoPa over commits to the run.

Penn State on the other hand is really banged up at QB where the true freshman starter Robert Bolden is most likely out with a concussion he suffered against Minnesota.  Which leaves Matt McGloin a walk-on sophomore.  When Michigan's defense has played well this year it has been against teams with young/in-experienced quarterbacks.  It's the upperclassmen that have picked the Wolverines apart.   With that said, Penn State does have a talent running back in Evan Royster.  I expect Evan to get a lot of carries this week against Michigan's defense that has given up some big plays in the running game. 

Tale of the Tape

Michigan Offense vs PSU D =  Go Blue

Penn State Offense vs Michigan's D = A real ugly push

Special Teams = Penn State (better place kicking, punting is a push, return game who knows?)

Intangibles = Push (both need a win, night game at home favors PSU but talent favors Mich)


I think the Michigan faithful is much more confident in this game then they were at the beginning of the year.  With that said, this is not an easy win for the Wolverines, no matter who is playing QB for JoPa.  Michigan will have to stop the run and make that young QB beat them with his arm.  The Michigan CB's will have to show improvements over the past two games in letting WR's run free.

Sing Hail to the Victors if..........

• Denard is week 1-5 Denard
• Michigan doesn't turnover the ball
• The young PSU QB looks young and confused
• Denard has 150 on the ground and so does two Michigan RB's
• The Michigan D gets stops against the young PSU offense

Shout I hate saying Go Blue when Penn State is wearing blue jersey's if..........

• Evan Royster is finding huge holes in the Michigan D
• Matt McGloin is the next Troy Aikman
• Michigan is sloppy and confused after the bye week
• Michigan's LB's keep losing contain
• Michigan beats themselves

I expect the Wolverines to have renewed focus and rest after the bye week and play a very good game.   I hope Michigan fixed things on defense and worked in a few new looks on offense.  A win = Bowl Game which they haven't had in two years.  With the game on prime time national TV they should be ready to play.  

If Michigan doesn't make the same mistakes they made against MSU and Iowa they should win the game even if the defense shows up for only part of the time.  With that said, I expect Michigan's D to get a lot of stops against young Penn State's offense. (examples UConn and ND first half)   If Michigan can pressure the young QB and not let Royster beat them, they should be in good shape.    Michigan 38 Penn State 24


GO BLUE!

Michigan vs Iowa Preview

Date: October 16, 2010

Time: 3:30 EST

TV: ABC
Location: Big House
Line: Iowa -3
Weather: 64 and Sunny



Both Iowa and Michigan were off last weekend.  One team earned a Big Ten loss the other didn't.   This picture on Michigan's last drive pretty much sums up the Michigan State game for the Wolverines:

I hope the Wolverines have had a good week of practice and were able to fix some issues on defense.  The linebacker play has to improve and the defensive ends have to be better.  If you watched the West Virgina - South Florida game last night you saw the 3-3-5 defense be effective.  The key difference in my mind is that the front 3 have to be able to get pressure on the QB.  Michigan's front 3 (outside of Martin) are not playing well or getting pressure or hitting the running backs.

Iowa has had health issues with their running backs and will try to trick the Wolverines linebackers and young secondary with some play action fakes.   Iowa saw State run through some big holes and will try to run the ball but Ricky Stanzi will for sure try to attack the Michigan secondary.   Can Michigan get one of Ricky's famous pick 6's?  Let's hope so.  Maybe Donovan Warren can come back for a game.   Iowa is not as explosive as State in the running game but they do have 3 strong WR's.  

The only thing Michigan needed to fix on offense was some decision making.  MSU didn't do anything special on defense they just got the balls thrown to them.  Iowa on the other hand does have a "special" defense and has the #1 scoring defense in the country only giving up 10 points a game.   Michigan's high powered offense vs Iowa's defense.  Can Michigan's offensive line handle Adrian Clayborn and Iowa's defensive line?  Iowa is a better version of Michigan State on defense.

Tale of The Tape:

Michigan Offense vs Iowa's Defense =  Push

Iowa's Offense vs Michigan's Defense = Iowa

Special Teams = Push (both teams are pretty poor)

Intangibles = Push  (Iowa was off and Michigan at home)


It's homecoming for the Wolverines so expect that guy doing the locomotive Michigan cheer.   I think teams coming off a loss are pretty dangerous and sometimes a team coming off a bye can be rusty.  Since 2002 Big Ten teams are 17-32 coming off a bye week which is a .347 winning percentage.

Iowa has lost a game when they traveled West to take on Arizona this year.  Iowa got behind quickly and fought their way back to only lose at the end.   Iowa gave up 34 in that game.  I thought Michigan played well at Iowa last year and all most won when Denard came in late and drove the team for a TD but then threw a pick on the last drive.

Sing Hail to the Victors if......

• Denard makes decisions like he did in the first 5 games
• There is a new starting middle linebacker
• Michigan can move the ball and score on Iowa
• Michigan doesn't play tight and really focused after the State loss
• Shaw is healthy and getting yards on the ground
• Michigan gets points out of special teams

Spit out your corn if..............

• The Michigan wide receivers still have the "dropsy"
• The Iowa defensive line looks like they could take the hand offs in the Michigan backfield
• The Michigan D continues their bend and break defense
• Michigan loses the turnover battle

I expect Iowa to shut down Michigan's running game as much as possible and Denard will have to beat them through the air.  The Michigan defense HAS to play better and get some turnovers against a QB that is prone to throw a few picks.  The key for Michigan on defense is to pressure Stanzi, if Michigan can get some sacks and some pressures which will force some mistakes and get some stops.

I am torn on this game.  Michigan plays well against Iowa but Iowa has a really good defense.  I think Michigan can get a few stops on defense but can they score on Iowa?  Denard went "Tebow" in the Wolverine locker room after the loss against State.  Will that have an effect on the Wolverines?  Michigan is a better team then they were last year when they met Iowa, I think Iowa was better last year. 

I didn't like anything I saw from the Wolverines last week, they played tight, they made mistakes on offense and gave up big plays on defense.  This game is a turning point for the Wolverines in 2010.  If they win they are back on Sportscenter,  if they lose they are trending towards the 2009 collapse.   I think one of the biggest questions on Saturday: will the Wolverines be hungry and really try to get bowl eligible? I don't like the match ups in this game and I hope I'm wrong.  Iowa 24 Michigan 14


Go Blue!

Michigan - Michigan State Preview

Time: 3:30
Location: Big House
TV: ESPN/ABC
Line:  Michigan - 4.5
Weather:  75 and Sunny

This is the annual in-state battle with a number of story lines between two ranked un-defeated teams and clearly the best Big Ten game of the day.    Michigan State has a good defense and Michigan has a strong offense.   MSU gives up 18.6 points a game with ranks #36 in the nation while Michigan's offense ranks #9 in the country with a 41 point average per game.  Vice versa is where it gets a bit ugly:  Michigan's defense is ranked #72 in the country in "points against" while State's Offense ranks 24th in scoring 31 points per game. 

So who has the advantage?  Let's go to a more detailed Tale of the Tape:

Michigan Offensive Line vs MSU D Line = Michigan

Michigan Running Game vs MSU Defense = Michigan

Michigan Passing Game with Denard vs MSU DB's = Michigan

State's Running Game vs Michigan LB's = State

State's Passing Game vs Michigan's DB = State

Special Teams = State

Intangibles = Michigan (home and 2 loses in a row)


Michigan has the advantage on both lines.  MSU has had trouble getting any pass rush this year and has an inexperienced offensive line.  This is a game where the announcer will say for the past 100 years the team with the most yards on the ground has won the game.   Michigan State will try to run the ball about 70% of the time, they want to keep Michigan's explosive offense off the field with long drives.   When they do pass look for a lot of balls thrown to the running backs and tight ends.  There is going to be a lot of pressure on Michigan's linebacker unit and players like Thomas Gordon and Jordan Kovacs. 

Michigan on defense will need to stop the run and put as much pressure on Cousins as possible.  This is State's first road game of the year and The "New" Big House crowd will be loud and juiced up for the late afternoon start. 

Both teams beat ND and the MSU defense gave up 367 yards passing to to Dayne Crist but just 95 yards on the ground.   Michigan will try to be more balanced with a strong run game.  Wisconsin was able to run for 165 yards last week. 

Sing Hail to the Victors if....................

• If Denard is effective through the Air and Ground
• Mike Shaw can break some nice runs and can compliment "Shoelace"
• The Michigan D slows MSU's running game
• We see some 4 man fronts on defense
• Michigan's senior LB's put this game on thier back and make a statement
• Cousins gets rattled and starts throwing it to the men in the Blue sweaters.

Burn all your green clothes if...................

• Michigan LB's look lost and out of place most of the game
• Greg Jones is stopping Denard
• MSU's talented WR's aren't in the same zip code as Michigan's DB's
• Michigan's doesn't have a pass rush and Cousins is picking apart the Michigan secondary

This is another game that everyone is saying "take the over".  It seems both offenses will score and score often.  MSU will try to wear down the Michigan D with long drives by pounding the ball and short passes.  Look for Michigan to bring creative ways to get pressure besides Mike Martin with the use of true freshman Jibreel Black out of Cincinnati at DE. 

Michigan has plenty to play for with an instate rival in town.  6 wins get them bowl eligible for the first time under RR, they have lost 2 years in a row to State, and this could be win #2 over the 3 rivals on Michigan's schedule this year.  I think Michigan will come out with guns a blazing and we will see some new things/plays we haven't seen yet this year.  If Michigan wins the turnover battle, I think they win with some cushion.  I expect to hear one of the loudest Big House's ever.  Don't sell MSU's first road game short, they might struggle early when they realize this isn't Ford Field.  This game has a bit of a UConn feel with many of the national media predicting a close Spartan win.  Michigan 38 MSU 28


GO BLUE!

Michigan - Indiana Preview

Time: 3:30 EST
Location: Bloomington, IN
Line: Michigan -10
TV: ESPNU
Weather: 66 and Partly Cloudy


This is the first Big Ten game of 2010 for both teams.  IU is 3-0 with wins over Towson, W. Kentucky, and Akron while Michigan is 4-0 with wins over UConn, ND, UMass, and Bowling Green.  

If it was a boxing match, most experts would expect a knock out in the first 3 rounds.   Both guys throw a ton of punches but don't protect themselves very well.

Let's go to the team ranking through 3 or 4 games:

Rushing:
Michigan #2
IU #96

Passing:
Michigan #50
IU #11

Points For:
Michigan #11
IU #10

Points Against:
Michigan #64
IU #43

So what do you make of these?  It's clear both teams like to score points, Michigan on the ground and IU through the air.  Neither team plays much defense.  I would say Michigan being #64 against the teams they played is a bit better then IU's #43 through 3 cupcakes.   Everyone is predicting a ton of points in this one and a running time of about 5 hours.  Which should make the crew from ESPN U happy since 2 million people tuned in for the Michigan - BGSU blowout a week earlier. 

Tale of the Tape:

Michigan Offense vs IU Defense = Denard

IU Offense vs Michigan D = Lots of practice for Michigan's Young DB's

Special Teams = Push

Intangibles = Push (IU is at home but Michigan is the best team they have faced this year)


Indiana has a senior QB and good players at the skill positions.  Michigan on defense will have to get a ton of pressure with the pass rush and not get surprised by the running game.   Michigan's DB's will have to make some plays to get some stops.   If there was ever a time to consider Brian from Mgoblog's theory of putting Kovacs at middle linebacker, this would be the game.   IU came into the Big House last year and almost beat Michigan with only a controversial interception by Donovan Warren giving Big Blue the win.

IU on defense won't be able to stop Michigan's offense since they had a hard time stopping Western Kentucky and Akron.  So ball protection will be key for Wolverines.  Michigan was focused and ready to play the last time they had a road game in Indiana a couple of weeks ago against ND and they need to have the same focus against IU.

Sing Hail to the Victors if............

• Michigan doesn't have to punt or kick field goals again
• Denard is Denard
• The Michigan Defense against UConn, ND, and BGSU shows up
• Michigan gets 5 sacks and 2 picks
• A Michigan RB has over 100 yards and Stonum and Roundtree are open all day
• Bill Lynch launches his gum toward the crowd 3 times.  Is that double bubble?

Scream, Indiana is a basketball school! if............

• The game becomes the "Chappell Show"
• If Saturday starts to look like 2009
• IU gets some stops on defense
• Michigan turns the ball over
• Michigan's DB's look like high school seniors

There is one thing I know for sure in sports:  When everyone thinks one thing is going to happen the opposite usually does.  Everyone and their brother are calling for a ton of points in this game (like 80!).  Whoever scores last wins!  Which could be true but I think Michigan's 2010 defense is actually better suited for a Pistol or Spread type of offense then a Pro Style (like Michigan will see the following weeks).  Greg Robinson will be very key in this game on the personnel and formations he uses.   I think both teams will give up big plays but not as many as predicted.   Turnovers will be the difference.  Michigan 31 IU 20


GO BLUE!

Press Box on Saturday

BHB Inmates,
I will be in the Press Box on Saturday and since I don't have a twitter account, I will give you some updates here at BHB.  Instead of Tweets lets call them Bleeps here at Big House Blog. 

So tune into the game and share you feelings here at BHB. 

See you then.

-Bob

Michigan - Bowling Green Game Preview

Time: 12:00
Location: Big House
Line: Michigan - 25.5
TV: ESPN2
Weather: 63 and Sunny

I find there are a lot of similarities between these two teams:

• Both have fairly new head coaches (ok after 3 years, I guess we won't be able to use that much longer)
• Both have young QB's
• Both have a young defense
• Both teams like to score lots of points
• One team lost their first two games but had a good win last weekend, the other had two good wins but didn't look so good last weekend.
• Both schools are 72 miles apart from each other
• On Saturday, I will drive by one stadium and sit in the other.

The big difference is talent.  Michigan has much more talent on it's roster but these days it really doesn't make a difference.  See any FCS school that has played a D1 school close this fall.

What will we see from BG?

Bowling Green likes to run a "west coast" style offense with high percentage throws.  Which means lots of short routes and screens.  This offense is made for ball control and first downs.   BG's starting QB is out for the game and their new QB is making his first start.   BG's offensive line is young and has been struggling.  

BG is also young on defense where their DB's and LB's are very young but talented.  They got a pick 6 last week and 4 total interceptions against Marshall.   I didn't see the game but I expect some of those 4 picks were poor decisions by the Marshall QB.

What will we see from the Wolverines?

I don't see the BG defense being able to contain the high powered Michigan offense.  So points shouldn't be a problem.  Michigan hopes to use a number of new running backs to give them some experience.  So look for Cox, Hopkins, and Toussaint. 

Michigan's defense is the big question mark going into the game.   They played well for the first two games and terrible against UMass.  Will we see some new guys at LB?  How will Cam Gordon and the CB's play against a passing team?  Will they pressure the young BG QB making his first start?  Did they learn something from last week?

Tale of the Tape

Michigan offense vs BG defense =  Michigan

Michigan defense vs BG offense = Push

Special Teams = Push

Intangibles = Michigan

I expect to see a lot of points in this game.  What will Michigan's defense do?  If the same unit that showed up last week, shows up this week.  They will give up some points again.  I feel pretty good with BG's offense line and a new QB making his first start that the Michigan D can be successful.   I would like to see Michigan pressure the QB and get a bunch of sacks.

I would also like to see Tate and Devin (please redshirt him, please!!) (Yes, he could get a medical redshirt if he turns an ankle or something) and a number of new running backs.   I want to see the RB's get most of the carries like last week with another 100 yard rusher.

Sing Hail to the Victors if:

• Defense gets stops
• D pressures the QB
• Michigan gets 5 sacks
• Michigan makes a field goal
• Michigan catches and returns a punt
• Offense skill players stay healthy
• We see some backups on both sides of the ball
• This game isn't a replay from last week

Start to get that weird feeling in your stomach if:

• The defense didn't learn anything
• Ezeh and Mouton have a UMass type of Saturday
• Michigan attempts a field goal
• Denard has to play the entire game
• That fish taco you ate on Friday night isn't sitting well

I'm not worried about Michigan scoring points, I would like some linebackers that can read/react quickly and a kicker that can make field goals from 40 yards or less.   That would be nice.   I don't want to witness a UMass style game this week.  I want to see Mr. President Jack Kennedy (4th string QB) take some snaps.  That would be a good Saturday.   Michigan 48  BGSU 21


GO BLUE!

Michigan vs UMass Preview

Time: 12:00 EST
TV: Big Ten Network
Location: Big House
Weather: Isolated Thunderstorms, high 74
Line: None


I will start the preview with this line:  Don't Sleep on the Minutemen. 

When I looked at this schedule I thought UMass would be an easy win.  Similar to Delaware State last year - It's not going to be that easy.  This UMass team can play and is 2-0 and ranked #16 in FCS.  They have wins over two quality FCS opponents so far this year in the #3 ranked William and Mary and Holy Cross.  They have a senior JUCO transfer at QB and have picked up a number of kills players from Northeastern and Hofstra after their programs folded last year.   Greg Robinson should recognize a number of Syracuse transfers that are now starting for the Minutemen.

UMass runs a pro style offense with a power run game.  They like to lead with the full back and run between the tackles.  Which should run right into the strength of the Michigan strong defensive line and senior linebackers. UMass had to replace all 4 starters on the defensive line but the strength of their defense is their linebackers lead by Tyler Holmes an FCS All American.  UMass doesn't have any players that hail from the State of Michigan.

Let's go to the Tale of the Tape:

All levels of Michigan vs All Levels of UMass = Michigan

That was easy.  Let's hope the game is that easy as well.


What I'm looking for from the Wolverines this week:

• Less Denard and more Running Backs:  I would like to see Fitz Toussaint and Mike Cox get some snaps.  A running back with a 100 yards please. 

• Less Denard and More Tate:   I am still holding out hope they can redshirt Devin.  I know he has played and might have burned his redshirt but it's only been 3 plays and this game will go long way on that plan.  If Devin gets a lot of snaps my redshirt theory will die for sure.  I think it's very important for Tate to play and play a lot.  I have a feeling that Tate will need to win some games for the Wolverines this year during the Big Ten season.  He needs the reps.

 

• Less Mike Martin more Big Will:  We all know Mike is a great player.  I would like to see more snaps for Big Will because I think we will need him during the year.  This is a great team to have him in there against.  He is a big body run stopper against a team that likes to run.

• More experience for the DB's:  I would like all the freshman DB's to get snaps in this game.  The next two weeks is time to get some experience.

Sing Hail to the Victors if.......

• Michigan isn't thinking about Big Ten play.
• The defense stops the run and puts a ton of pressure on the QB.
• A running back steps up and gets a 100 yards
• If it's out of reach by the 3rd quarter
• Lots of play from the 2 and 3 deep players
• Michigan makes a field goal

Worry if...................

• UMass is App. State
• Michigan is just to vanilla on both sides of the ball which keeps UMass in the game
• Michigan has been watching ESPN and reading the newspapers all week
• It's still close in the second quarter
• Michigan thinks this is a bye week after UConn and ND

I expect Michigan to play hard on Saturday as the coaches have reminded the team about Toledo two years ago and what happened to Virgina Tech last week.   I also expect the coaches to remind the players that they have been home for Christmas the last two years because they didn't take care of business in games like this.  I want Denard to run only if he has to and more from the Michigan running backs and wide receivers in the passing game.  (sure his numbers might take a hit and there might be a few: what happened to Denard stories on Sunday?) UMass should not be able to stop Michigan's offense at any point during the game.  No line on game.  Michigan 42 UMass 7 


Go Blue!

Michigan vs Notre Dame Preview

*I want to pre-note this post with the truth that I am very torn between my head and heart on this game.  My head says one thing and my heart says another.  So I am going to write this and hope one is clear winner by the time I'm done.

Michigan at Notre Dame
Time: 3:30 EST
Location: South Bend
TV: NBC
Weather: 60% Rain and a high of 70 degrees
Line: ND-4

Remember when the Michigan - ND game was a defensive battle?  Where a winning score would be 14-10?  Not these days, last years 38-34 Michigan win was the highest scoring battle in the history of the series.   Most media members are expecting another shootout between these two historic college football programs.

Similar to last week, this is another match up between 3 former Big East head coaches with Kelly at UC, RR at WVU and Greg Robinson at Syracuse.  Both QB's on each side don't have a ton of playing experience: Denard Robinson got spot playing time last year and Dayne Crist is a junior but really made his debut last week as well.

So how do they match up?  Lets go to the tail of the tape:

Michigan Offense vs ND Defense = Michigan
Michigan has advantages at both running and passing the ball against the ND D.

ND Offense vs Michigan D = ND
Michigan Run D vs ND Running game is close to a push in my mind.  The big advantage comes with the ND Passing game vs Michigan secondary.

Special Teams = Push 
Neither one is especially strong.  Hopefully Darryl Stonum can repeat his strong kick off returns against ND like he did last year.

Intangibles = ND
Something strange always happens when Michigan visits ND.  Some examples: wind stops on and ND winning field goal, It rains so hard that Michigan fumbles a 100 times, Lou Holtz plays for a tie, a ball ends up a shoulder pad of a defender on a pass play, and so on. 


Here is what scares me being a Michigan fan. 

#1 Michael Floyd - Michigan could not stop him or Golden Tate last year at all.  (that was with Woolfolk, Boubacar and Warren)

#2 Denard's first road and rivalry game - That is a lot to handle for the guy making all the headlines this week.

#3 South Bend has been a house of horrors for Michigan.  There is a 10% chance of rain today in South Bend and Sunday there is a 0%.  Saturday 60%.

#4 Michigan has one road win under RR.

This game is another clear example of which team gets the most stops will win.  Pretty basic right?  I think Michigan will do a decent job against ND's run game.   My biggest concern is if Dayne can get the ball down field to the ND's WR's.  Michigan has to protect the ball and can't visit fumbleville like they did during their last visit.  Neither team can afford to give the other free points or short fields. 

Sing Hail to the Victors if:

• Michigan gets a lot of pressure on Crist.
• Michigan shows some new wrinkles in the passing game (like the deep ball).
• No turnovers.
• Someone can catch a punt.
• Greg Robinson's past success against ND can even out Michigan's bad luck in SB.  Remember his Syracuse teams weren't very good but were pretty successful in South Bend.

Worry if:

• Dayne turns into Joe Montana on Saturday
• ND runs the ball effectively with Armando Allen
• Brian Kelly has a solution to stop Denard's run game

Brian Kelly feels that Denard is just a running back playing QB.  Michigan fans disagree and hope he can showcase his passing skills against ND.  The run fake, then pass should be effective in moving the ball down field against the ND defense.  Picks and fumbles concern me in this game.  The game two years ago is still fresh in my mind and worries me even more if it rains again.  I sort of have a strange feeling we may see Tate for a few series, mostly if Michigan gets behind and has to pass.  There are many questions on both teams coming off week one wins.  I think RR knows what type of team he has, not sure Brian Kelly knows his fully yet.  I think this will be a close game and one mistake might be the difference.   I wouldn't want to prepare for Denard and that "running back comment" should be plenty of motivation for Saturday.  I'm going with Heart!   Michigan 28  ND 21


Go Blue!