Location: Ann Arbor, Big House
TV: ABC/ESPN 2
Weather: High of 89 scattered thunderstorms
Line: Michigan -13.5
It's hard to believe that we are a day away from starting the Hoke era. Is it me or does it seem like RR left about 2 years ago and not just 8 months? Michigan kicks off the 2011 campaign in front of 110,000 strong at the Big House at 3:30 on Saturday (this really should be noon kickoff). Saturday will be special for Hoke and his entire staff as well as the freshman who will be running on the field for the first time and of course the seniors who know it's now or never.
Western Michigan finished 6-6 last year and finished with a 5-3 MAC record. They are a perfect opening day opponent for the Wolverines, who hopefully will be rolling out an improved defense and a new pro style offense. Western will remember Denard Robinson very clearly because Denard took his first college football snap for a touchdown against the Broncos just two short years ago.
What to watch from WMU:
- Strong QB play - Alex Carder threw for 33 touchdowns and over 3,300 yards last year.
- A good WR unit with Ansel Ponder and Robert Arnheim. The most dangerous is Jordon White who lead the team in catches and yards in 2010.
- A poor running game - Western only averaged 4.0 yards per carry last year.
- A defense with 8 returning starters, which includes the entire D-line.
- There is not a lot of experience in the defensive backfield or at the linebacker.
We know the Wolverines well, so how does WMU strength match up against the Wolverines?
Let's go to the tale of the tape:
Denard vs Westerns D = Shoelace
WMU Passing Game vs Michigan's DB = Western
Mike Martin vs WMU O Line = MM
Michigan's O line vs Westerns D Line = Pancakes from Village Kitchen
Special Teams = Push
Intangibles = Big House and Hoke's first game
There really isn't a ton of mystery in this game. Western will try to throw the ball and exploit the Michigan secondary and then mix in a few runs hoping to hit some big plays. The Michigan defense will try to disrupt that strategy by pressuring the passer with a lot of pressure from the D-Line. I expect to see lots of blitzes from the Michigan linebackers and lots of cornerbacks in the game since I expect Western to spread the field as much as possible. Western averaged 30 points a game last year and I am sure they have watched a ton of tape on how the Michigan defense couldn't stop anybody. Michigan hopes the likes of Woolfolk and Floyd back from injury will help the DB's cover the talented Western wide receivers.
Michigan will try to run the ball and mix in a short passing game. They want to move the ball on the ground and score lots of points with out showing too much for ND. The flavor of the day will be vanilla unless the Michigan defense struggles and Michigan needs to open it up a bit. If the Wolverines can move the ball with Shaw and Toussaint I expect we won't see Denard running too much. I believe the game plan for Denard is to beat the D with the treat of running but hitting the Michigan WR's on short routes that will set up the long ball.
Sing Hail to the Victors if..................
- Shaw and Toussaint both have over 100 yards
- The Michigan pass rush is effective against the Western's O line
- The Michigan defense is much improved and gets a ton of stops
- The Michigan Oline dominates and keeps Denard clean in the passing game
- If the Western pass game is effective against Michigan's D
- If WMU scores touchdowns instead of field goals
- It becomes a shoot out
Former Wolverine and 4 star recruit Dan O'Neill transferred after he thought he didn't fit into RR's spread offense and wanted more of a pro set. He headed to Western where his brother played. (Which is ironic because I expect Western to throw the ball in a number of spread sets and Michigan now is the one that wants to run the ball in more pro sets). Dan will get to meet a lot of his former teammates during the game as I expect Mattison to do all kid of things to get pressure on Western's QB to protect his linebackers and defensive backs. The key for the Michigan D is not to give up any big plays and let Denard and the Michigan offense do their thing.
The last few years the Michigan D plays their best game of the year in the first game of the year, so I expect something similar on Saturday. With some better coaching and solid D Line and Woolfolk locking down one WR, I expect the Defense to over whelm Western. The Michigan offense will be Pro Sets and have Denard in the shotgun a lot. The goal is to get Denard out of the game early in the 4th quarter and healthy for ND next week. The Wolverines want to over power the Broncos and not show too much for ND to key on.
Michigan 31 Western 13
Go Blue
PS: I will have my game thoughts up on Sunday.
