World Cup Group Stages Stock Report

As this was going to press, all of the teams that were eliminated suffered a complete collapse in their stock prices and can now be found on the pink sheets, but the more significant teams had to be included because their downfall was so complete that it can't be ignored.

Apple

1 - Argentina. It pains me to type this, but they look very dangerous. Even with an egomaniac at the helm they managed to come together and play very well without relying on Messi. If they were on the same region of the bracket as the US I'd say they were a lock to make the finals, but they will have to go through Germany (Yes, I think England will lose) and a back-to-life Spain. Cokehead vs. Chokesters may decide who gets to the final.

Get a room.

2 - Holland. The Dutch are one stupid Rafael Van Der Vaart handball from shutting out all of their opponents. They didn't have a very strong group, but they won all three games (joining Argentina as the only 3-0 teams) mostly without the help of Arjen Robben. They look good, seem vulnerable to counter-attacks, and have the fortune of being on the "easiest" side of the bracket. The best team they could face is Brazil, no easy task, but the reward for beating them would be the winner of the Urugauy/US/Ghana/South Korea pillow-fight bracket. I know, I'm being harsh on Uruguay.

3 - North & South America. The Americas handed out a serious ass whuppin' this year with 7 of 8 teams advancing and a whopping 4 group winners. Everyone expected Brazil and Argentina to win their groups, but the emergence of Uruguay and, to a lesser extent, the USA, were pleasant surprises. I would love to be wrong here, but we could see an all America final. One side of the bracket "should" feature three (Brazil, Uruguay, USA) teams. Way to go continents!

4 - Messi Apologists. With no goals to fawn over the comments quickly shifted to how great he is despite the lack of a Messianic (Ahh, see what I did there?) performance. To be fair, he did create 3 goals, and is one of the few players to keep some nasty free kicks below the crossbar, and in one case right on it.

British Petroleum

1 - France. The most complete implosion I can possibly imagine short of getting into a fight with themselves during a game or physically turning into a black hole and destroying all life on earth. They looked like complete shit on the field, they came in with a sex scandal, they fought on the training field (when they weren't protesting), their clown of a coach sent someone home, and South Africa sent them packing in their final game. Not much else to say; they deserved to be eliminated on so many levels.

The only person still confused about France's early exit.

2 - Africa. No, not the continent, the teams. 5 of 6 teams failed to leave the group stage including the feisty host who went out with a bang against France. I'm impressed with the passion for the game seen throughout the World Cup, so its a little sad to see no local teams to cheer on aside from Ghana.

3 - Messi Fanboys. No goals, and I'm sure people were expecting 4 a game all from 50 yards out or after running through 10 defenders. Even Ronaldo has scored, so all of the Messi-Maradona comparisons seem overblown so far. He hasn't owned the tournament, let alone a single game, so maybe teams have been planning around him. Who knows, maybe he will rise up against Mexico and Germany (Shit, did I just jinx the Germans?!).

4 - Kim Jong Il / North Korea. After they parked the bus so well against Brazil, the glorious leader's secret commands couldn't save them from the first bona fide ass kicking of the tournament. I would have to look at the tape again, but I think even Figo managed to score in that one - definitely not what Kim Jong Il had planned... or was it? That devilish bastard. To make things worse, they were thumped by the Ivory Coast 3-0 this morning; at least they held Portugal's massive goal differential to keep Drogba out of the second round.

You are going to need two more fingers for the Portugal result.

There were a lot more topics, but I don't want to bludgeon you with complaints. Just barely missing the cut were Officials (Blind?), Ivory Coast (Thuggish against Brazil), and the USA (Winning England's group!). I'll close this report with a few words about our original predictions.

I Told You So!

Australia. See, the Sports Optimator isn't wrong about everything. The media's favorite underdog was just that, a dog, and failed to surprise anyone but Serbia. They did manage to suffer from two redcards, both going to their best players, so they could have done a little better, but probably not much.

Ronaldo. Ok, I was half right. He didn't do much aside from producing a frightening free kick and scoring the goofiest goal of the tournament in a 7-0 blasting of North Korea. Portugal managed to find life working around his black hole style of possession; sadly, this robbed us from his repertoire of diving theatrics and tears. I'm patiently waiting for him to guide a knock-out round implosion.

I Was Misquoted...

France & Italy. I was so confident they were just good enough to win their groups despite all of their problems, and I couldn't be happier to have been proven wrong. Both teams played like crap and never really looked like they wanted to move on. Italy only showed some life at the end of their 3-2 loss to Slovakia. And, it couldn't have happened to a nicer bunch of guys. My biggest fear now is that the curse of the Optimator is going to finish the job. I really should have been more down on Holland and higher on Argentina.

Fantasy Baseball, 70 Games Down

The past 10 games have been a real rollercoaster of emotions, mainly for me, culminating in what should be the final three for the remainder of the season. It is starting to look like the 1st place team is untouchable, although Andrew disagrees, and the Sports Optimators will be trading barbs and places in the standing for some time.

The biggest personal tragedy for me was losing out on the Stephen Strasburg Lottery by one position in the standings. I had dropped to fourth with Brett Anderson heading for the DL, but the team in fifth had an ace up their sleeve with Daisuke Matsuzaka DL eligible. Disaster also struck when one of my favorite bathwater sources, Troy Tulowitzki, broke his wrist and will be out at least 6-8 weeks. The only upside to the past week or so was some managerial magic, and crazy luck, when I managed to transform Brett Anderson (DL), Rich Harden (DL, thank God), and Wade Davis into Matt Latos, Mike Pelfrey, and Zach “I May Be Clinically Depressed Again” Greinke. The Davis-Greinke trade seems lopsided, much like my Ibanez-Upton swap, but until Davis got shelled twice in a row it didn’t look so bad. I’m rolling the dice that Greinke and Upton wake up in the second half and keep me in the money.

Maybe next year Stephen, when I'll have to pay $40 for you.

I wasn’t the only one pulling off some transaction magic as Andrew managed to jettison the shaky Ricky Nolasco in exchange for Andrew Bailey. Andrew likes to ride starters, get a big lead in Ks (which he has), then trade for closers. Sadly he has not had a lot of low budget closer luck like I have, even though Frank Francisco cost me a sup move, so Andrew is now on his 5th closer (Frasor, Gregg, Capps, Bailey, Lidge) and relying on Brad Lidge to help him out. At least he didn’t pay $15 for Lidge, and I will never have him again. Andrew definitely has the most solid core of starters, especially with Haren coming around, and he thinks it will only be a matter of time before his staff if #1 and putting him top of the league.

I'm shocked Andrew has forgotten about this.

The World Cup has done a great job of keeping me distracted, sometimes its good to ignore the standings, but once the Cup is decided I have a feeling I’ll be right back to giving myself a heart attack over every Jonathan Sanchez meltdown.

Current Status
Bert - “Well Dude, we just don't know.”
Andrew - “That's a great plan, Walter. That's fuckin' ingenious, if I understand it correctly. It's a Swiss fuckin' watch.”

World Cup Stock Reports & Corrections

I would like to kill two birds with one stone here by making some snarky comments about the first round and apologizing for totally botching the knockout phase of the World Cup in our predictions article. Apparently I was drinking before the tournament even started. It wouldn’t be a Sports Optimator post if we didn’t mess up or jinx someone (Spain), so let’s get to those stock reports.

Rising Stock

1 – Germany. Yes the Aussies managed to draw a bogus red card, but Germany was already up 2-0 at that point which would have been one of the best results in the first round. The fact that they added two more made it look worse, but for me the thing that impressed me most is their creative attacking style. I was looking for a plodding German side that would just wear down their opposition much like Italy, but they looked exciting and very dangerous. This game also planted the seeds for a new Man Crush in Mesut Özil, and who doesn’t like saying Schweinsteiger?

Mesut Özil; turning the page on the Ballack era one creative pass at a time.

2 – Holland. The Dutch join Germany as the only favorite to handle their opener well with a 2-0 win over the Nicklas Bendtner lead Danish. You can’t hear me, but I’m laughing about the last part of the previous sentence, although Bendtner nearly scored an awesome header. Nearly. The Dutch looked vulnerable to counter attacks, but even without Arjen Robben starting they managed to appear explosive and aggressive with the ball. I would be happier with 2-0 if the Danes tried to attack, which leads me to the next riser…

3 – Parking The Bus. I know there are a lot of teams out there that just cannot compete with the more talented teams. If everyone used an attacking game plan we would see a bunch of 6-1 score lines and humiliated fans. With that in mind, a number of teams have adopted a super defensive scheme that looks an awful lot like being balled up in the fetal position. Despite the boredom of watching the favorites dribble into a brick wall, it works very well and has slowed or toppled a number of teams in the first round. The most notable failure so far is Spain, the favorite to win it all, who were felled by Switzerland’s 25-0-0 formation and some shady defending. North Korea also managed to pull off an “upset” by losing to Brazil 2-1, and I was worried it would be 6-0. Their only goal gave Kim Jong Il the footage his propaganda machine needs to make it look like they weren’t manhandled for 99.9% of the game.

Plunging Stock

1 – Spain. I know, I picked them to win it all. They are so talented, but losing to the Swiss after dominating that game will no doubt cause some panic. They are by no means finished, if they win the next two they advance, but this doesn’t look good. Spain is the only top team to lose to the Parked Bus formation, but Cesc Fàbregas didn’t play and they showed a bit a disconnect between the midfield and forwards. If I see one more team dribble up the middle of the field and try to pass a ball through 8 defenders I’m going to puke.

2 – France. The French looked horrible and managed one of the most boring 0-0 draws I’ve ever seen. From what I saw the French are good at two things; blaming their performance on the vuvuzelas, and letting Yoann Gourcouff shoot from 40 yards out and look confused about sending the ball 15 yards over the goal. I have no idea what they were doing, they looked very uninterested in winning their game and it showed. Despite their talent they could be an easy out if they advance.

3 – Portugal. Another 0-0 draw that featured a boring superpower. Ivory Coast didn’t start their best player, Didier Drogba, but Portugal couldn’t do anything with the opportunity. Cristiano Ronaldo also failed to do anything, as I predicted, aside from rattle the woodwork with what could easily have been the goal of the tournament. I was close to making #3 “Passive Top Seeds” since the first round featured so many top seeds that looked like they were playing for a draw. Had Portugal won this game they would no doubt have been in a great position to advance, but now they are in a bad position and will have to beat North Korea and pray for a draw with Brazil.

Prediction Revisions

I know I have the advantage of watching the first round, but since I messed up the bracket some of the match ups changed. Once again, my bad, this was me being an idiot. I’d hate to disappoint our reader. Not included in the stock report above is France's 2nd round stinker (2-0 loss) to Mexico, so all of my confidence in them has left the building.

I have no doubt this will not come true, a Brazil-Argentina final is likely.

Sorry about the size, blogspot strikes again. The biggest change is that I have Holland winning it all, but I can see Germany winning it just as easily. I'd like to see Holland purge the demons of '98 and '74 all in one tournament.

Fantasy Baseball, 60 Games Down

With a little over 100 games left in the season things are starting to settle, and it looks like the rest of the season will be a three man race. The standings tend to jump around alot still, but it looks like the champ is going to have to finish the season with at least 60 points. The top two are comfortably above that (64, and myself at 62.5) and Andrew continues to lurk with 57 and a fourth dark horse at 53.

I wish I could say something interesting happened this week, but the standings stayed pretty much the same and nobody important got hurt or did anything stupid. Sadly none of the perfect games tossed this season helped me out, and I continue to be haunted by Rich Harden. I'm also getting killed by picking the wrong hot pitching prospect on the Rays (Wade Davis), which was nice because Texas and Tampa Bay took turns torching either when Harden and Davis started. I think I ended up with 15ER in 8IP with those two. I just wish there was some pitching phenom waiting out there for me to pick up, like someone that could strike out 14 guys in 7 innings. That would be nice.

Apparently its pronounced like Strawsburg

Of course anyone who follows baseball knows this past week featured the debut of the next great thing to happen to baseball, Stephen Strasburg, and he managed to fulfill all of the wild predictions. This has started the ball rolling on the Strasburg lottery in our league, but sitting in 2nd with no supplemental moves means I'm out. Andrew is also out in 3rd, so we can only sit and wait to see who gets him (likely the last place team as of Monday 6/14) and look on longingly. I'm sure Andrew would love to have a guy who is being compared to Mark Prior, because he worked out so well.

I promise the 70 game report will be more exciting. Really, it will. I swear.

Current Status
Bert - "You gotta buck up, man, you can't go into the tournament with this negative attitude-- "
Andrew - "Sure! Fuck it! That's your answer! Tattoo it on your forehead! Your answer to everything!"

Gunners and Gooners: Breathe a little easier

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2010/jun/02/cesc-fabregas-barcelona-arsenal

The Sports Optimator 2010 World Cup Predictions

With less than 10 days left until the start of the 2010 World Cup we felt like it would be a great idea to jinx a few lucky teams. I really wish I could say that Argentina is going to win it all so they get cursed, but Maradona is going to deal with them whether or not we put a reverse jinx on them. (Selection are listed as #1/#2)

Disclaimer : Blogspot is acting up and I can't get rid of the 5 different fonts going on here. Probably a good sign of how professional our predictions are.

Group A
Bert : France / Mexico. It would take a disaster of epic proportions, like handball karma, for France not to win this group. They have too much talent up front (Gignac, Gouvou, Henry), in the midfield (Ribery, Gourcouff, Diarra, Diaby, Malouda, I could keep going...) at the back (Gallas, Evra, Abidal), and in goal (Lloris) to not advance, and I wouldn't be shocked if they won all of their games handily. I am not convinced that South Africa is good enough to continue the host nation streak, and I think Mexico takes second. To make it worse South Africa plays France last, and unless they have clinched the group and lie down for the hosts I don't see France losing.

Andrew : Uruguay / France. There are other karmic forces at play here, like bad uniform karma invoked by France's bizarre Baby Björn jerseys. But aside from that, I can't disagree with Bert. This French team is stacked: Ribéry, Malouda, Anelka. How did this team almost not make it? Of course the answer to that is that they are poorly coached, and I'm using that term lightly. Logic dictates that against better talent than Ireland, they should falter, but logic also dictates that this team should thump everybody in their path until the knockout rounds. Can you tell I'm conflicted? When the draw was first published, I had Mexico and Uruguay advancing, and I still think the odds are pretty good that could happen. No, I'm not always this non-committal.

The French like clowns so much they made one their coach, I wonder how that will work out.

Group B
Bert : Argentina / Greece. This group could be ugly, but I'd like to think even a coke snorting "suck it" shouting Maradona can't screw this one up... right? Argentina is loaded, and unless they sit Messi and play a 10-0-0 I can't imagine them doing any worse than 1-1-1 in this group. I might have some serious egg on my face though, but I'm willing to bet the Argentine players figure something out to counter the dreadful coaching of Maradona. I really want to pick Nigeria here, but Greece's suffocating defense should carry them past the first round. South Korea could also make me look stupid, but I'm predicting a group full of 1-1-1 teams that will bore fans half to death. I would really like to see Argentina eliminated, but God tends to ignore my prayers.

Andrew : Argetina / Greece. Nothing to add here, really. Maradona has absolutely no idea what he's doing, but I don't think it will matter in the group stages. Not in this group, anyway. Outside of Kyrgiakos, I couldn't name one player on Greece's team, but this pick is more about their manager, Otto Rehagel, than anything. Greece won the Euro 2004 under him, and that was not a fluke. He's one of the most successful German managers of all time, having led Werder to the title twice (during a 14-year stint), as well as leading 1.FC Kaiserslautern from the zweite Liga, to promotion, to the Meisterschaft, in two successive years, the only club in history to accomplish that quite incredible feat. Imagine Newcastle winning the Premiership next year, and you have an idea of what I'm talking about. Granted, Greece didn't do much at Euro 2008, but I can't bet against the Ottocrator.

This is the face of Argentina when we should be talking about Messi.

Group C
Bert : England / United States. The easiest group to pick. I think England thumps better-than-we-think Algeria and Slovakia, and if Wayne Rooney continues his current form they may win all three games. I also think the US builds on its "success" in the Confederations Cup and takes down Algeria and Slovakia, but a draw against England is probably in the cards. The real prize here is winning the group, as the winner goes on to play the runner-up in Group D (very top heavy group) and the loser plays the winner (more on that next) which will not be easy.

Andrew : England / United States

Group D
Bert : Germany / Ghana. Much like France, I can't imagine Germany failing to win this group. It would take an epic failure on their end to be sent home here, and I can't imagine a scenario (that doesn't involve Jens Lehmann pissing behind the goal) where Germany doesn't win at least two of their games. At first I went with Australia for second, but EVERYONE is picking them to surprise, which inevitably means they won't surprise anyone. I think Ghana's recent success in the Africa Cup Of Nations will be enough to propel them, most likely needing two wins to escape this group. The schedule doesn't look good for them as they face Germany last, and Australia takes on Serbia to seal the group. If Ghana falters, look for the Socceroos (ugh, I can't believe I just typed that) to take advantage.

Andrew : Germany / Serbia. Germany is horrible, but they will still advance out of the group stage. After that, well, close your eyes. Serbia - I can't tell you why I just made this pick, but I did.

Group E
Bert : Netherlands / Cameroon. Another easy group to pick, but a fairly deep field. Holland should win at least two games here, and with Robin Van Persie back it should be three. The Dutch have a habit of looking great and stumbling to a disappointing finish, so another year of heartbreak is certainly a possibility. The big reward here is playing the second team in Group F, which could be a serious banker. Second in this group is tough, but I think Cameroon will ride semi-home field advantage to advance. Japan could be sneaky, and the Bendtner lead Danes could... oh wait, nevermind. I expect Cameroon to advance, but I wouldn't be shocked if Japan used its last game against Denmark (Cameroon closes out against the Netherlands) to advance.

Andrew : Netherlands / Cameroon.

Group F
Bert : Italy / Slovakia. The most top heavy group of the tournament, and easily taken by Italy. The Italians, as much as I don't like them, should completely destroy this group and look like convincing defending champions. Second place could literally be anyone, but I think Slovakia can do just enough to win. New Zealand qualified because they are in Oceania and have only once beaten a European or South American team (where is Slovakia and Paraguay?), and Paraguay haven't made it past the group stage in their last seven appearances. Sadly it could be decided by the Paraguay-New Zealand pillow fight that closes group play. Whoever limps out of this group at #2 is going to be fed to the lions and face the Group E winner (Holland) so, don't get too excited for them.

Andrew : Italy / Paraguay

Group G
Bert : Brazil / Ivory Coast. Ah, the group of death, but most importantly someone I hate/fear is going home. Brazil is loaded with uber talented players, and I foresee them taking at least two games from this group. It wouldn't shock me if they fell to second, but I think they are the most dependable team of the group. Who takes second is a tough call, and as much as I would like to see Didier Drogba watching the second round from the stands, I think the Ivory Coast advances. I have a feeling, if the last Euro taught me anything, Ronaldo will go into "Me First" mode here and weigh his team down by holding onto the ball too much and trying to take on the entire opposing team. I'm looking for the Ronaldo Face followed by the Ronaldo Crying Face and most likely a hissy fit after a transparent attempt to dive. Portugal is talented but he won't have the Galacticos to make him look good, and I think Ronaldo will be seen in the stands clutching his man purse. You are more likely to see an ad for his line of underwear than him actually playing during the second round. If all of that wasn't enough Portugal closes out the group against Brazil, and as tight as this group is I doubt either team will be taking it easy, especially with a banker against the runner-up in Group H as the prize for winning the group.

Andrew : Brazil / Portugal

Portugal fans should get used to this.

Group H
Bert : Spain / Chile. Spain should have an easy time with Group F's twin. Spain has been riding high since the Euro, but I keep flip-flopping on their potential to win it all. Their starting roster is amazing, but we all know the Spanish have a penchant for choking, so I don't know if the Euro was a performance Heimlich for them or an aberration. Sadly their reward for torching this group will be a date with the runner-up from Group H (Ivory Coast), which won't be easy. As for second, I have to go with Chile only because they came in 2nd in South America and have a less putrid qualifying record than Honduras (5-1-4). I'm a bit wary as Honduras will finish against Switzerland, so if the Swiss completely fold a win for Honduras could ruin Chile's chances.

Andrew : Spain / Chile.

Round Of 16 (Match Number)

1A-2B (49)
Bert : France over Greece.
Andrew : France over Greece. I wrote Greece down first, just because I'm partial to Rehagel, but France is just too talented. Still, Greece over France would not surprise me.

1C-2D (50)
Bert : England over Ghana.
Andrew : England over Serbia. Barely, this team looks very vulnerable all of a sudden.

1D-2C (51)
Bert : Germany over United States. I'm willing to bet nobody will notice Ballack isn't playing at this point, unless you enjoy seeing him vanish for 90 minutes.
Andrew : Germany over United States. No question. OK, I know I said that Germany was bad, but not bad enough to lose to the Americans. God forbid.

1B-2A (52)
Bert : Argentina over Mexico.
Andrew : Argentina over Uruguay.

1E-2F (53)
Bert : Netherlands over Slovakia.
Andrew : Netherlands over Slovakia.

1G-2H (54)
Bert : Brazil over Chile.
Andrew : Brazil over Chile.

1H-2G (55)
Bert : Spain over Ivory Coast. I think Spain will get by, but just barely.
Andrew : Spain over Ivory Coast.

1F-2E (56)
Bert : Italy over Cameroon.
Andrew : Italy over Cameroon.

Quarter Finals (Match Number)
Winners Match 49 & 50 (57)
Bert : France over England. England has been a mess lately, so this isn't out of the question.
Andrew : England over France

Winners Match 51 & 52 (58)
Bert : Germany over Argentina. Well drilled vs. confused, I can't imagine how this one will end.
Andrew : Argentina over Germany. I will now cry in my beer.

Winners Match 53 & 54 (59)
Bert : Netherlands over Brazil. The Dutch exorcise demons still looming from '98, and this is not the Brazil we have come to expect.
Andrew : Netherlands over Brazil. Hey, why not?

Winners Match 55 & 56 (60)
Bert : Spain over Italy.
Andrew : Spain over Italy.

Semi Finals (Match Number)

Winners Match 57 & 58 (61)
Bert : Germany over France. The Germans are a terrible opponent for a poorly coached team, just ask Maradona.
Andrew : Argentina over England.

Winners Match 59 & 60 (62)
Bert : Spain over Netherlands. This could be a serious shoot out.
Andrew : Netherlands over Spain.

Final
Bert : Spain over Germany. Germany overachieve by drawing both coaches trying to run their teams into the ground, but in the end Spain guns them down. Klose/Podolski have been ghosts this year, so unless Schweinsteiger goes off on Spain I don't think Germany will have the firepower in this one.

Andrew : Netherlands over Argentina. These tournament picks have been brought to you by my dog. Well, they would've been if I had one. But there are just too many variables for me to nail down anything. Germany has a ton of injuries. Argentina has the most talent, but is coached by someone with the IQ of my imaginary dog. Spain is fantastic, but they just won the European Cup, and when has a team won the two tournaments in succession? No, really, I wanna know, but I don't feel like looking it up. So, maybe Robben stays hot and Sneijder gets hot, and Van der Sar comes out of retirement, and... this will never happen.